Saturday, September 16, 2017

About all that "Bitcoin Crashing" News...

BITCOIN IS SO VOLATILE!

IT CRASHES ALL THE TIME!

DON'T BUY ANY BITCOINS!


As gracefully put by @real_vijay and updated by me:

Bitcoin Crashes
Jun 16: -41%
Jan 17: -37%
Mar 17: -31%
May 17: -33%
Jun 17: -39%
Aug 17: -20%
Sep 17: -38% (as of now)

Bitcoin Prices
30 Jun 16: $636
31 Jan 17: $970
28 Mar 17: $1,195
31 May 17: $2,303
30 Jun 17: $2,455
31 Aug 17: $4,743
30 Sep 17:   ?


It's times like these when every mother donkey cow is suddenly an expert on the definition of financial assets and are calling Bitcoin / crypto a scam or a fraud that makes me just want to give up trying to explain just how wrong they are.
 

I mean, why the hell would any intelligent person own any bitcoins, right?
It is obviously in a bubble, right?
It can't possibly go higher right?
Isn't it WORTHLESS?
Based on NOTHING?

It's okay, you can just watch me get rich instead of joining me.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Crypto Ramblings Sep 17

I have been travelling and the crypto markets have been lit (by lit, I mean on fire and burning to the ground), so it has been hard for me to blog until now.

I did make a quick post that there is a crypto GSS that was happening in early Sep, and now I am fairly certain that the bulk of the downside has passed. Rest assured, my money was where my mouth was at and I was buying all the way down (from ETH 388 all the way down to 262).

In just 4 days at the start of September, ETH dropped a massive 29%, lol.
BTC was not spared either and dropped 15% during the same time. But remember now, BTC is supposed to be the bigger, stronger and more mature currency.

Since the 1 Sep highs, BTC's drawdown hit 25% (it touched 40% in the last crypto bear) and ETH's drawdown was slightly deeper at 35%.

I hate using the word FUD, but there is a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt.... by people who aren't invested in crypto. Since I've started my crypto journey and more of my friends have found out that I am doing it, I've received a lot of FUD articles with the recent drop. I know its half concern and sincerity - they know that I'm in it and they want to tell me about this news - but I also know that it is half "I told you its crazy and risky, get out now!".

As convictions go, I'm a complete convert of cryptos.

Honestly, people talking about whether its actually worth anything or not are years behind the current situation of cryptos now. We are long past the discussion if cryptos are worthless. Talking about cryptos if you're up to speed on the discussion is never about "well what if you wake up tomorrow and cryptos are worth nothing?" anymore. They are DEFINITELY worth something, the question now should be, how much?

Governments are not banning it and calling it scams anymore. They are instead trying to regulate it and stem retarded investors from getting burnt in it. We've past the phase of denial of cryptos and we are currently in the bargaining and negotiation phase. Within 2-3 years, we should be firmly in the phase of mass adoption.

The China crypto news isn't that cryptos are illegal. It is that fundraising through ICOs is illegal and should follow a proper process. The news of possible exchange closes is another thing - most likely the need for licencing to continue operation.

The prospects of crypto are EXTREMELY rosy right now, due to the fact that most people are NOT in it yet. When the rest of the world jumps on board the crypto train, it's going to end up like any major world currency, except news that move it will not be domestic numbers or election outcomes - it would be technological updates and adoption metrics.

One of the more interesting and mainstream usage of blockchain can be clearly seen by AXA's integration of travel insurance on the Ethereum blockchain. I fully expect more and more businesses and services to be built on PUBLIC blockchains where everyone can verify the authenticity of the data.


In other news, there are tons of crypto ATMs being rolled out all over the world, exchanges for crypto-fiat trades are exploding like wildfire everywhere and governments and businesses are hiring blockchain experts and integrating blockchain solutions (ala our very own Project Ubin).

Honestly, if you are STILL skeptical of cryptos as a technological force to be reckoned with, you must be extremely tech unsavvy to be unable to grasp what a massive leap of technology we are at the forefront of.

That said, progress in blockchain tech does NOT equate to massively awesome cryptocurrency returns. It does seem very correlated for now though.

I currently have 2 independent thesis on why crypto is going to make me insanely rich and fabulous.

1) The world realizes the need for SOME VERY IMPORTANT THINGS to be decentralized. A lot of trust systems will move onto the blockchain - simple cannibalization. And trust me, there are tons of things that SHOULD be on the blockchain - any kind of contract imaginable, ownership deeds (which includes every single financial assets that you can think of - real estate, stocks, bonds, etc), important snapshots of data... as long as people are willing to pay for an immutable copy to be kept on the blockchain, it will be on a blockchain and money is going to change hands.

2) The world realizes that the current monetary system of credit and debt is completely retarded and unsustainable in the long run and people actually move away from manipulated fiat currencies and adopt globalized and fair cryptocurrencies instead. Unlike precious metals, cryptos are extremely feasible and would actually be the preferred currency in today's day and age. (Precious metals will still be valuable in such an outcome for sure though, don't get me wrong. I've liquidated everything else except my precious metals, haha)

As much as I am sure that outcome 2 will happen eventually, I'm banking on outcome 1 to happen first, and guess what? I can already see all the gears in motion for that. No, even more than that, I am invested into cryptos that will be used in all these future applications of public blockchains.

Oh and for those wondering how my portfolio is doing with the crypto CRASH (yes, more than -20% is considered a crash), I'm very glad to report that I am STILL in profits. I wonder how fabulous things are going to be when the market eventually recovers? All the cryptos that I am holding onto have plenty of good news coming over the next few weeks and months. To be honest, if they don't double in value I'd be pretty disappointed. Cryptos have entirely screwed up the expected returns that I expect from investments now. And guess what? Amongst my crypto peers, I'm the most lowball in terms of returns expectations!

So the big question that you have all been waiting for: Can the market go lower from here? Probably unlikely, but it is certainly possible. I'm thinking that it can poke lower and bounce around these areas, but I'm looking at a recovery from these levels, not a lower move down. I've fully invested my portfolio allocation for crypto at this point of time... is that conviction enough? That said, I'm all prepared for shit to hit the fan. My lower bound estimate for BTC is $3000 and for ETH is $120. When it reaches those levels, the warchest dust will be blown off and I will be ALL IN at that point of time - I will live and die by crypto.

Perhaps in the future when I look back at this post, I'd ask myself why I didn't go all-in when this might be the last chance that the world sees sub $300 ETH.

I guess my tune and optimism might change if (note that I did not use when) my portfolio finally goes negative, but for now even with the huge downward moves, I sleep happily and comfortably at night.

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Crytpo GSS!

I'm travelling, so I'll keep it brief.

The crypto market felt very overheated. In 1 and a half months, Ethereum went from $140 to $400 and Bitcoin went from $1900 to $5000. It has just stopped it's ridiculous ascent.

Honestly, I felt that the gains have been too fast, too quick and too steep. Even with all the new money flooding in the prop the market, the market does have "some" sort of mechanism that helps to achieve "fair" values.

I know in the recent weeks, tons and tons and tons of fresh, new investors have been joining the crypto game. How do I know? A few things - the massive numbers of emails that are being sent to me, the spike of group members in the Telegram group that I am in, and the general increase of interest of it with the general public.

As much as I would like to see mainstream adoption of cryptos, the technology is quite user-unfriendly still at these stages. However, progress is being made at rapid speeds and I'm quite certain that by 2020, cryptos will be a huge force to be reckoned with.

Anyway, what this means is that all the new people in the past weeks have seen huge gains of up to 185% in the major currencies, and much more in the alternative and smaller ones. A shakeout to scare all these newbies and do a transfer from weak hands to strong hands is necessary for a healthy market, in my opinion.

Many of these people either own it through a CFD and are just trading it, or own it through an exchange. Almost all of them have never made a transaction with it. It's scary to think that people are throwing in thousands of dollars into this "technology", but they actually have never used it before and don't even really know what it does. Oh well, I guess it's okay as long as it props up the prices of the cryptos I own? Haha

Over the past day, Ethereum have dropping an astonishing 15% within a day. Anyone that thinks the crypto market is maturing to the point that there isn't much volatility and opportunities anymore is clearly out of their mind.

Hopefully this "dip" is actually part of something bigger and flushes out the weak hands and money chasers. It's a good time to separate the flippers from the long term believers for many projects as well.

I'd expect this correction to last a while, enough to make the newbies panic and we have another dip lower. Personally, I've been very disciplined to gradually scale myself in as the prices keep dropping.

With the upcoming Metropolis part 1 hardfork and a few good ICOs coming up, I'm particularly very excited for the progress and development of all my interested projects. I'm quite sure that by end of Q1 2018, my portfolio is going to be very nice and fat with many of my invested tokens making huge profits with their huge progresses.

Crypto is a crazy game guys. If you have no idea what you are doing and if you are only in it for the money, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Right now, I'm fully prepared for the market to drop another 40% from these already lower prices. I hope it doesn't come to that, but that's just the kind of volatility and buffers that I think about.

Stay safe, it's a crazy world out there.

Friday, September 1, 2017

GMGH Crypto Blackbox Investing (End of Aug 17 Results)

As mentioned on 8 Aug, I will doing something called Blackbox investing.

As a refresher what that is all about:
I will not be proving my investment capital
I will not be naming the actual investments
I will not be proving the returns from those invesments
I could make making up the entire thing and you wouldn't know

Since then until now, I have been accumulating some cryptos and I have been investing them into different ideas. I think I'll just share my performance so far and see how this post goes.


Compared to my performance just 1 week ago, I'd say thinks are looking mighty fine.

If (strictly hypothetically speaking) I sold off all those cryptos now and converted it back to SGD, the returns I would get would be "Returns from SGD Capital Investment". I'm looking at gains of between 29% - 274%. Delicious.

I've taken note of the values today and I'm thinking if I should reset the gains and make 1st Sep the base value. I'll think about it more.

-----------------------------------

The above is just the returns of my Blackbox investing portion of my portfolio that I'm sharing and that is definitely not my entire portfolio.

Investing in crypto is crazy. But the returns are crazy as well.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

[SGX Portfolio] Final Update

This is my final update for my SGX portfolio that I feel I have been running quite successfully since March of 2014. Why?

I just sold off almost everything, that's why!

Yup, pretty much everything.

The only stocks I hold are Croesus, Saizen, Global Investments, Hotung and the STI ETF, pretty much legacy investments that don't require much tending.

Over the years I slowly built up my SGX portfolio from humble beginnings. The best snap shot is the end of last month, where accumulated dividends were $3000, realized gains $1400 and unrealized gains of $100.

I'm not certain if my calculations are correct, but my calculated internal rate of return is 7.0% per annum.

I felt like I made some great calls in the past. Being heavy into foreign REITs was a very easy investment for me that made me a very fair bit of money. Croesus will be gone soon too.

I had narrow escapes with horrible companies, like Noble and China Fishery. I did get caught bagholding with Casa, Sing Heng and 2nd Chance though.

I can't say it was very fun. Countless of hours reading annual reports, looking at charts and referring to my spreadsheets. All that for peanut returns I feel.

My past 2 months in crypto has made MASSSIVEEEE amounts of returns that I really don't give two shits about traditional stock investing anymore. I'm moving on to greener pastures, but don't worry, you can still wave to me, I'll be around.

Some people would be tempted to liken it to the tulip bubble. But is it really a bubble if nobody you know owns any of it? Or if they do, just miniscule amounts? Hmmm...

Sometimes I cry myself to sleep at night wishing I had put all of my capital into cryptos 3.5 years ago. I would definitely be a millionaire by now.

Anyway, I just wanted you guys to know that I am relinquishing all my involvement with the local stock market because, frankly, I don't give a damn anymore.

I'm pretty much cash, gold and cryptos now. Basic barbell strategy. Risk-free af assets + Risky af assets. You can call it the tin foil hat portfolio. Zero cashflow portfolio. Crap portfolio. Snake oil portfolio. Whatever. You don't have to, and you shouldn't be blindly following what I'm doing anyway.

Is this wise? That I don't have any of the "right" investments in my portfolio? I guess we'll find out in a few months and years.

This is madness. I know.

But it feels so good being able not to care anymore.

So long to my credibility as a financial blogger! Cheers!