Friday, February 23, 2018

DigixDAO (DGD) Vindication

As many people know, DigixDAO is my FAVOURITE crypto for the longest time. In fact, it was the first crypto that I discovered that got me very excited enough to build a sizeable position.

I've talked about it during Cryptmas ($150 USD, 0.23 ETH) and also during my 2018 portfolio where I outlined the simplified thesis of DGD. ($200 USD, 0.16 ETH)

Well, currently we are at $300 USD and 0.38 ETH.

While DGD is fresh on the radar now for being a safe haven during crypto dips (and you can find a lot of recent reviews and explanation of this crypto on YouTube and around the net), this was not always the case. 

In fact, DGD used to be a downward-biased, leveraged ETH proxy. This means that when ETH dropped 5%, DGD would usually drop 8-10%. And then when ETH recovered, it would recover slower.

DGD was a terrible trade for the longest time until the start of February when it was doing it's crazy shit.


However, what is interesting to note, is that since that spike in February, DGD has since never gone back below it's theoretical NAV of 0.23 ETH. I highly doubt that it ever will. In fact, I was having some FOMO that I didn't fill my bags enough, so I just bought more a few days ago.


Yes, I bought DGD recently, even though, you know, "1 coin of DGD is so expensive". *rolls eyes to the back of the head*

To be honest, anyone recently buying DGD has it easy. There is actually volume and a good exchange to trade it on. When DGD used to be only on Bittrex and Yunbi (confirm 99% of you have never even heard of or used this exchange before) and it was a bitch to buy. Strangely, Yunbi had better market depth than Bittrex, so I found myself having to send BTC/ETH to this China exchange, sell it to CNY and then buy DGD in CNY and transfer out the DGD to myself. It was not the most delightful experience. Yall have no idea how good and easy it is to just have everything on Binance and not have to deal with other weird ass exchanges.

The daily volume on Bittrex used to be so low that I have to worry about moving the entire price of the market with my purchases. Nothing teaches you about order books and market depth like trying to buy DGD on Bittrex "in the olden days". And buy DGD I did.


As you can probably tell from my average price, I bought a shit ton in July when price was sub $60. I swear, it's no easy feat considering how goddamn illiquid the market was.

Since November 17, I have stopped putting in fiat directly to buy DGD. Instead, I found myself draining my ETH reserves the entire January buying the insanely cheap DGDETH ratio.


Oh yeah baby, that's right. I bought the freaking dip. All of these positions just 6 weeks later are now up 100% in ETH. How much is it up in fiat? I don't know. I used ETH to buy it and I'll sell it back to more ETH later, so that's all that matters.

Now, let's conclude.

I did not have any special insider trading news.
I do not possess any super human 6th sense of crypto prices.
I did not chart some special magical funny TA with triangles and whatnots.

I just bought a bleedingly obvious cheap crypto that was very much overlooked by the market.
In fact, DGD gave me the same vibes when I was hunting down Saizen REIT.

I was almost doubting myself that it can't possibly be so goddamn easy. But it was.
I manned up and bought a shit ton.

DGD is and was my perfect trade.
If I sell out my DGD now, my profit is 6 figures.
Yup, 6 figures. 'nuff said.

Well, that's if I do sell out now. Price might go up, price might go down, I have no idea. I am still holding on til it's release and adoption before I decide what I'd like to do with my position. Honestly, if things pan out the way that I imagine, my retirement is settled with my current holdings of DGD alone.

Anyway, the point of this post that I am trying to make is NOT to shill DGD. I don't give a rats ass if you buy it or if you short it.

The point that I'm trying to make in this post is that (1) crypto markets are EXTREMELY inefficient in pricing and (2) there are logical methods to value cryptos and the rewards are very very very handsome if you can do it right.

To be honest, I think that lots of traditional investors that do macro investing or deep dives into specific stocks and sectors would excel extremely doing crypto compared to the average crypto investor who knows jack shit. But then again, many are too high up on their horse and have publicly shot crypto as tulip bubble ponzis to even consider the possibility that they MIGHT have been wrong and that crypto isn't stupid.

I am will keep pressing their buttons. Because why not? I'm already all-in on this "forbidden path". Ahahahaha


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So that's the end of my perfect trade. I don't think it's pefect anymore since the margin of safety by the "NAV" is no longer there. The easy profits have already been made up to this point, which means that this investment is significantly more risky compared to itself just 2 months ago. It could possibly continue to be the best investment in the world based on a very positive rollout of DGX 2.0 and along with its partnerships integrating DGX and then having it become a massive crypto and a new standard of a stable global crypto currency. That's what I'm hoping for.

Or it could fail and fall back down to it's 0.23 ETH value. Or even lower.

Who knows? Definitely not me.

But from this point onwards, you're making a bet that DGX gets rolled out and adopted successfully. You can no longer make money from DGD failing. It has to succeed if you are entering at this point.

So, is DGD a good investment now? I don't know. But I own a shit ton.

Will the crypto markets go up? I don't know. But I actually expect 1 more big fat dip.

Good luck in Cryptoland. It is still a dangerous place out there.

Friday, February 16, 2018

Join My Crypto Telegram Signal / Pump Group!


Haha, I kid.

I don't have a telegram signal group or a pump group. I don't belong in any of those kinds of groups either.

Anyway, with the recent Suppoman is a piece of shit drama, I finally watched some Doug Polk because he had a video talking about this fiasco, and I have to say, I think Doug Polk is my Crypto spirit animal.

Please give this video a watch. I really strongly encourage it.


I feel like what Doug Polk does as a YouTuber for crypto mimics a lot of my personal and moral views about what it is like being a "public" figure in the crypto space. I echo a lot of points and I actually just subscribed to his channel, heh. I can't attest to his other videos because this is the first and only one I've watched so far, but I really like his style and sense of humour.

Other YouTube channels that I watch are:

CryptoLark - excellent coverage on cryptos and ICOs and interviews, best in class, IMO
CryptoDaily - humourous market recaps
CryptoBobby - down to earth personal views and strategies
David Hay - straight talker with the balls to call out bullshit
Ivan on Tech - programmer with great technical insights
Louis Thomas - regular kid that does casual and relaxed talks on cryptos
Jackson Palmer - Dogecoin creator and does a lot of crypto education and PSA
Andreas Antonopoulos - the original Bitcoin YouTube guy
Dave Levine - Ethereum maximalist
Tommy World Power - long term, long shot crypto investor

BoxMining - serious market recaps (BFFs with Suppo, so I am considering boycotting him)

The list up there is the list of channels I watch. I've definitely stumbled onto other ones, but lots of them are bad, some are pure trash and cancer. Some people running those bad channels are so goddamn stupid, and then you realize that they have thousands of even stupider followers that are just swallowing up all that bullshit. 


Take everything with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Yes, even the stuff you read here. I might be wrong, but I do my best to put out good information.

Yes, information. No, not financial advice. Not trading advice.

Stay safe and be skeptical, always.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

All That Crypto Heat Fizzling Away



Remember when people used to be so hot about crypto?

I guess with the market still down from all time highs, a lot of that heat has dissipated away and along with that, lots of newbie money just lost in this sea of red.

Strangely, I am not too affected. Reason being is that I came in early enough and heavy enough that the average cost of my positions are still deep in the money.

For the new people, especially those that plunged into Bitcoin without understanding it's investment thesis, they got destroyed.

Why were people plowing into $20k BTC when fees were pushing over $20 USD per transaction? Now the price has dropped 50% to ~$10,000 and transaction fees have plummeted and amazing 99% to cost just $0.20 USD per transaction.

If anything, BTC right now is a massive giant howling screaming monkey that is yelling "BUY BUY BUY". At least, that's what I hear myself.

Since most of the degenerate speculators and gamblers being bankrupted and margin called out of the system, we're back in business.

ICOs are still steaming along and the good ones are getting extremely hard to get allocation for. In the GBX token done on Qryptos, $3.5m USD was sold out within 3 seconds to only 131 people. Yours truly happened to be one of them, oh yes.

In my opinion, now is the best time to be for shopping and picking up extremely promising crypto that have come off all time highs by 60-80%. Just a month ago some people were paying 4-5x the current price, can you imagine what a bargain the space is right now?

While the survivors are staring blanking at their portfolios which are 50% underwater, I'm busy rebalancing my portfolio - taking profits from cryptos that held up the drop better, and scooping up the stuff that people are hastily throwing away. These unwanted shits will hopefully be very shiny gems in the not too distant future.

The next 2 quarters are going to be lit with all the development of my crypto holdings.

Oh you know the Singapore Smart Nation, big data nonsense thing? I've whitelisted for an ICO that will be leveraging on that. *cough cough page 31 of the whitepaper cough cough*. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION BY THE WAY.

But yes, blockchain and crypto are useless tulip bubbles. Repeat it til you believe it. Doesn't hurt my pocket though.

While everyone was calling for the $0 valuation of all these crypto tulips just weeks ago, it seems that those same everyone have also missed the story of the entire crypto marketspace recovering 50% over the last 10 days.

That's right. 50% over 10 days. From the day I was shitposting this.

All yell "I told you so" when crypto goes down, but conveniently keep mum when it's tearing its way up?

Typical.

I still hope for one more big dump, but oh well, I guess I just have to live with all these sick gainz. 

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Fiat Failure Food For Thought


Makes you really wonder, all that money in your bank accounts and investments... what would they be worth in the future?

I wonder if there is any sort of money that cannot be arbitrary printed to infinity to inflate away my purchasing power?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmgoldmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmcryptommmmmmmmmmmmm

Nothing comes to mind.

Oh well.

Maybe I'll tuck away $50 into the bank today so I can buy a plate of chicken rice in 30 years time and laugh about it.

Sunday, February 11, 2018

So Let's Talk Crypto Storage

The cool thing about cryptocurrency, which is a very rare property in investments, is the lack of counterparty risks in ownership.

Admittedly, counterparty risks is one of the most overlooked risks that many people assume. Usually because they have no choice to accept it.

But in the crypto world, there is little excuse to assume counterparty risks. Why let a 3rd party hold and own your funds when you can own it yourself?

Are you too cheap to pay $1-10 USD to withdraw your crypto from exchanges?
Are you too lazy to manage your own private keys?
Convenience?

Well, then sooner or later, you might lose your crypto.

Gox.
Coincheck.
Bitgrail.

This one specific unlucky guy lost $1.4M USD that was on a compromised exchange.

How many more exchange hackings do we have to go through for people to finally get this?

Got crypto in an address not controlled by your private key? Not your crypto.

Lack of hardware wallet support is just a lame excuse.

In most cases, there are software wallets and also paper wallets.
If there aren't, it's a shitty crypto to begin with anyway.

As much as I didn't like the idea of keeping my crypto on a webwallet, I didn't want to run a fullnode/wallet for Raiblocks, so I took that risk and used a webwallet. Why? At least I still have ownership of my private keys, and therefore my crypto.

With the whole shitshow happening with Mercatox and Bitgrail for the past several weeks, if you didn't withdraw your XRB/Nano while you could, you really might be too naive for crypto.

While I am sorry for the loss of funds of Bitgrail users, I think that the learning point to be had here is that you shouldn't trust exchanges to store your crypto.

Do you know who you should trust? Yourself.
Do you know who else you can trust? No one. Not even me.

If you can't trust yourself, you're already dead meat in this space.

I have about 10% of my crypto on exchanges (Binance and Bittrex) and with 3rd parties. This is much more than I am comfortable with. I have already planned how and when I will reduce my holdings when them. By the end of Q2, I should have more than 95% of all my crypto in cold wallets for the long hodl.

I keep most of my crypto in my Ledger Nano S, or in private keys which only I have access to. I would recommend for you to consider doing the same.

One of the advantages of crypto is that it allows you to be your own bank. I would implore people to massively improve both their personal and crypto opsec and take custody of their own crypto instead of leaving it on exchanges.

If you don't look after your own money, no one else will.